Two major olibanum supply countries, Sudan and Ethiopia political instability would lead to supply decrease. 埃塞俄比亚和苏丹，全球两大乳香出口国政局动荡影响产量。
2019-Jun-23, The head of Ethiopia’s military has been shot dead in the country’s capital, just about 2 months after Sudan get rid of Sudan's former President Omar al-Bashir. 苏丹总统入狱仅仅2个月后，全球另一个主要乳香出口国埃塞俄比亚发生政变，2019年6月23日，军队统帅被刺杀。
The supply of olibanum from Sudan has been decreased a lot since the coup. Sudan's former President Omar al-Bashir has been moved to Kobar maximum security prison, days after he was deposed in a military coup. Reports say the ex-leader has until now been detained at the presidential residence under heavy guard. He is reportedly being held in solitary confinement and is surrounded by tight security. Months of protests in Sudan led to the ousting and arrest of the long-time ruler on Thursday. 自从苏丹总统巴希尔入狱以来，军队将领宣布国家进入两年的过渡期，政府机构工作人员惶惶不可终日，唯恐新政府清算自己，导致苏丹的乳香出口量锐减。
Today Ethiopia General Seare Mekonnen was killed by a bodyguard at his residence in Addis Ababa, the spokesman said. Earlier, prime minister Abiy Ahmed said his government had foiled a coup attempt in the Amhara region. 今日另一大乳香出口国，埃塞俄比亚军队将领被刺杀，街头抗议游行不断，政治动荡下，埃塞乳香出口也恐将受影响。
Mr Abiy said the coup was led by a high-ranking military official and others within the country’s military.He said some people had been killed and others wounded in the operation. The US Embassy reported gunfire on Saturday in Addis Ababa and urged people to be careful. In October rebellious Ethiopian soldiers protested over pay, causing a security incident in the capital. Ethiopia’s army is one of the largest in Africa.
It is almost expectable that the supply of olibanum from Ethiopia will also be reduced due to political instability. But the demand for olibanum / frankincense from cosmetic industry and pharmaceutical industry are still growing. As a result, the price of gum olibanum in 2019-2020 is likely going to increase.全球两大乳香出口国由于政治动荡导致乳香总供应量下降，但是总需求还在稳步上升，尤其是来自于美容护肤和医药行业的需求，可以预见2019年-2020年乳香价格即将上涨。
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